Zusammenfassung
For clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) risk-dependent diagnostic and therapeutic algorithms are routinely implemented in clinical practice. Artificial intelligence-based image analysis has the potential to improve outcome prediction and thereby risk stratification. Thus, we investigated whether a convolutional neural network (CNN) can extract relevant image features from a representative hematoxylin and eosin-stained slide to predict 5-year overall survival (5y-OS) in ccRCC. The CNN was trained to predict 5y-OS in a binary manner using slides from TCGA and validated using an independent in-house cohort. Multivariable logistic regression was used to combine of the CNNs prediction and clinicopathological parameters. A mean balanced accuracy of 72.0\% (standard deviation SD = 7.9\%), sensitivity of 72.4\% (SD = 10.6\%), specificity of 71.7\% (SD = 11.9\%) and area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.75 (SD = 0.07) was achieved on the TCGA training set (n = 254 patients / WSIs) using 10-fold cross-validation. On the external validation cohort (n = 99 patients / WSIs), mean accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and AUROC were 65.5\% (95\%-confidence interval CI: 62.9-68.1\%), 86.2\% (95\%-CI: 81.8-90.5\%), 44.9\% (95\%-CI: 40.2-49.6\%), and 0.70 (95\%-CI: 0.69-0.71). A multivariable model including age, tumor stage and metastasis yielded an AUROC of 0.75 on the TCGA cohort. The inclusion of the CNN-based classification (Odds ratio = 4.86, 95\%-CI: 2.70-8.75, p < 0.01) raised the AUROC to 0.81. On the validation cohort, both models showed an AUROC of 0.88. In univariable Cox regression, the CNN showed a hazard ratio of 3.69 (95\%-CI: 2.60-5.23, p < 0.01) on TCGA and 2.13 (95\%-CI: 0.92-4.94, p = 0.08) on external validation. The results demonstrate that the CNN's image-based prediction of survival is promising and thus this widely applicable technique should be further investigated with the aim of improving existing risk stratification in ccRCC.
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